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Nov 25 2008

JP Morgan in ICU – Needs Surgical Operation and Needs it Quick

Bilal Hameed 

jp4 JP Morgan in ICU – Needs Surgical Operation and Needs it Quick

Citibank might be saved for now, but there cant be any solace for the folks in the financial sector as the financial monster now turns its focus towards JP Morgan, which is in dire need of more cash and is in need of it soon to remain above waters. Financial Times is reporting that JP Morgan would need something around $188 billion to survive, even more than the $160 billion that Citi needed:

Paul Miller at Friedman Billings Ramsey calculates that J.P. Morgan may require at least $188 billion in additional equity capital, compared with $160 billion for Citi.
Mr. Miller reckons that J.P. Morgan will need more capital than any of the the other largest banks—Bank of America/Merrill, Citi, Wells Fargo/Wachovia, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley—or financial services giants AIG and GE Financial.
Though those companies have about $12 trillion in assets in total, their tangible common equity is just north of $400 billion, or about 3.4% of assets. And since tangible common equity is “the first loss position” when it comes to bad loans, that number is “simply too low,” according to Mr. Miller.
Mr. Miller assumes that banks need capital equal to 5% to 6% of risk-weighted assets to cover possible losses. If the underlying capital is financed in the short-term funding market, then banks should set aside at least 10% to 14% more to account for the possibility that short-term money could suddenly become less available.
Though J.P. Morgan has more tangible common equity, at $90 billion, compared with Citi’s $35.5 billion, J.P. Morgan also has more risk-weighted assets, at about $1.3 trillion, compared with Citi’s $1.2 trillion.
As such, the bank could need at least $127 billion to cover those assets, compared with almost $97 billion for Citi.
Overall, the eight financial services companies examined in the FBR research may need between $1 and $1.2 trillion in funds from the government to work their way out of the current imbalance, which developed over a period of years as financial institutions placed too much reliance on short-term funding.

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