useconomydown thumb Advertising in the U.S. will reduce 6.2% in 2009

According to Madison Avenue’s closely watched forecasts, the advertising and media industries have yet to see the worst. Here are some of the points quoted from The Wall Street Journal:

  • Publicis Groupe media agency ZenithOptimedia expects U.S. ad spending to drop 6.2% in 2009 to $161.8 billion.
  • WPP’s agency GroupM sees a decline of 3% to $157 billion.
  • Zenith says the current ad spending downturn started in the third quarter and has accelerated through the end of the year, with U.S. ad spending down 3.8% in 2008 to $172.5 billion. Group M is predicting that U.S. ad spending increased 0.3% this year to $162 billion.
  • Online ad spending is expected to increase 5% in 2009, down from 16% growth in 2008, according to GroupM. [We figure this number must include search as well as display, which will probably shrink next year.]
  • Fitch Ratings cautioned that U.S. ad spending next year would drop between 6% and 9%, in line with the steep downturn experienced in 2001 following the bursting of the dot-com bubble and the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
  • UBS is forecasting that U.S. ad spending will fall 6% in 2009 but doesn’t anticipate the ad spending decline will be as steep as in 2001.