According to Madison Avenue’s closely watched forecasts, the advertising and media industries have yet to see the worst. Here are some of the points quoted from The Wall Street Journal:
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Publicis Groupe media agency ZenithOptimedia expects U.S. ad spending to drop 6.2% in 2009 to $161.8 billion.
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WPP’s agency GroupM sees a decline of 3% to $157 billion.
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Zenith says the current ad spending downturn started in the third quarter and has accelerated through the end of the year, with U.S. ad spending down 3.8% in 2008 to $172.5 billion. Group M is predicting that U.S. ad spending increased 0.3% this year to $162 billion.
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Online ad spending is expected to increase 5% in 2009, down from 16% growth in 2008, according to GroupM. [We figure this number must include search as well as display, which will probably shrink next year.]
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Fitch Ratings cautioned that U.S. ad spending next year would drop between 6% and 9%, in line with the steep downturn experienced in 2001 following the bursting of the dot-com bubble and the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
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UBS is forecasting that U.S. ad spending will fall 6% in 2009 but doesn’t anticipate the ad spending decline will be as steep as in 2001.
